[7/16/17] Lewisburg, PA — On off years, we really just have small snippets here and there to give us a preview for the upcoming elections. So, us nerds follow special elections and campaign finance reports to give us insight into what’s happening.
Just last night (7/15/17) the Federal Election Commission released the fundraising totals for the second quarter, which goes from the beginning of May until the end of June. Serious congressional races around these parts typically cost around $1 million, so a healthy off-year Q2 report would ideally feature some six-figure fundraising totals, minimal expenses, and a growing Cash on hand (COH). Below I set up a table that shows the names of potential candidates for Congress in the 10th district, the amount of money they raised, how much money they spent, how much money they have on hand, and if they’ve officially declared their candidacy.
Analysis:
It’s hard to look at Tom Marino’s fundraising totals and believe he is actually running for reelection. Just compare what Marino raised to his colleague, Lou Barletta, who raised a whopping $464,444. I suspect, Marino is depleting his reserves, so he just has a minimal cash on hand as he closes out his last term. All of the potential Republican candidates have respectfully not publicly announced their intentions to run until Marino makes public decision about 2018. After the release of this report, we can expect a clamoring amongst Republicans to enter the race — we can expect a crowded Republican primary.
Among Democratic candidates, Mark McDade led the field in fundraising. McDade is a Union Representative for the Pennsylvania State Education Association. Judy Herschel, a professional Drug and Alcohol Counselor, announced her candidacy in July, and was exempt from having to report her fundraising totals. This gives her a full quarter to raise money, a smart move.
The two giants of the potential Democratic field, Chris Carney and Rick Mirabito, have yet to announce their candidacy, but are reportedly making moves like locking down staff and sending out surveys. Perhaps this report, which brings the possibility of an open race (one with no incumbent), will be what they need to declare their candidacy.
This post is crossposted on medium.com/@taylight
Taylor Lightman 